The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released their estimate of vehicle sales for November on Friday, which showed that heavy truck sales were up 11.4% from the previous year.

  • Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in May 2009; however, they increased to a new all-time high of 570,000 SAAR in April, 2019 — prior to the pandemic.
  • At the beginning of the pandemic, heavy truck sales declined sharply again but have since been increasing and are now at 489,000 SAAR.
  • Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession; however, they were solid in November indicating that a recession may not be on the horizon.